On analyzing the events and processes suggested by the participants of the immersion, our working group built 6 future scenarios and highlighted them with different colours. Сards of events and attractors were also marked with the color of the scenario to which we attributed them.Apocalypse (red)
The easiest and simplest scenario. As a result of the social and political conflicts escalated due to climate change a country uses nuclear weapon, the nuclear war starts that decreases the complexity of human societies to zero earlier than the environmental crisis. What is after is unknown.
Attractors or precursors of the scenario are the rise of international escalation, militarisation, nationalism forced by growing environmental and socio-economic problems.
Business as usual or Brown tech scenario implies that we keep going on as we got used to it the other days: scientism and reductionism still hinder us from taking into account the complexity of Gaia-Earth natural systems in development, we keep our economic growth thinking that it is easy to hold CO2-level thanks to growing trees, electocars and nuclear plants until we face a set of natural catastrophes and food crisis resulted from climate change, soil degradation, coral reef extinction and drought. A hard environmental crisis is conducted with collapsing governments, growing conflicts, and the complexity of human society decreasing to zero. What is after is unknown.
Attractors or precursors of the scenario are the further growth of the world economy, depletion of natural resources, destruction of old forests, greenhouse gases emission.
For more information about the sources from which are the events of this scenario, as well as the degrees of temperature on the horizontal axis, see Appendix 3
. Slowing down / Slow wave (green)
Humanity manages to prevent the pick of the environmental crisis through slowing down and stopping of economic systems, voluntarily decreasing the complexity of technical systems opting for a more natural way of living. There are a reduced role of a government, rejection of nuclear power and militarization, a safe dangerous waste disposal. The role of communities goes forward, all together they arrange an interconnected net based on biocentric values. The environmental crisis is unavoidable, but it lasts way milder than in the previous scenario. Same mild humanity gets out of the crisis, when they restore the complexity of their systems as well as the one of ecosystems through prioritising biocentric ethics and ending up with a symbiotic way of living with Gaia-Earth in the future.
Attractors or precursors of the scenario are the seeds of values and behavior models of huge numbers of people, growing importance of eco-communities, traditional and indeginous cultures, rapid spread of biocentric ideas and concepts. Magic kick / Quick wave (yellow)
Sudden and serious but not fatal crisis such as a pandemic of a new dangerous disease (See Appendix 1
for more details) leads to a rapid economic contraction and reduction in environmental pressure. This crisis makes humanity more resilient and smooths another coming crisis. The society gets to restore using all the resources to follow the current way of development but it is limited by ecological problems. A new business paradigm takes an ecosystem preservation as a main priority and is eager to smooth a new crisis caused by environmental problems on the planet. After the second recession humanity opts for biometric ethics and restores step by step the complexity of the societies along with ecosystems' one ending up with a symbiosis living with Gaia-Earth.
Attractors or precursors of the scenario are a global pandemic of a deadly virus or the onset of another serious, but possible to overcome crisis leading to economic recession. Some people believe that just in March 2020 we were already in this branch of the scenario, but so far this is not obvious. Technogaia / Society built on wisdom (turquoise)
Rapid changes in culture and consciousness of human beings. An evolutionary and revolutionary leap happens resulting in new understanding of the entirety of mind and body, people start using transformation practises, by which they change their actions through changing themselves and their attitude to other beings. Within the decreasing environmental crisis the efforts and talents are directed to restoration of water balance, microorganisms in soil, to creation of permacultural healing "oases", offline eco-, energy- and IT-systems. We can see a cultural shift entaling growing complexity of humanity, opting for open knowledge sharing as the main value, people create floating cities, healing marine ecosystems, the entireness of humanity grows. After a period of time the blooming of the complex society comes to its end as new technologies lead to new crises, and humanity simplifies itself gradually rejecting super-complexity in favor of stability and resilience of symbiosis living of humanity and Gaia-Earth.
Attractors or precursors of the scenario are a transformational cultural leap, a change in the consciousness and activity of a large number of people, leading to a conscious abandonment of actions and technologies that increase the entropy of natural systems, and a transition to actions and technologies aimed at reducing entropy in the biosphere, to build ethically and technologically advanced sustainable civilization. Spiritual Singularity (Purple)
This scenario branches off from the Technogaia scenario. If already "Technogaia" is a rather utopian scenario, then here humanity continues to become more complicated, overcoming the barrier of super-complexity, leaving its current biological and, possibly, material form in general.
It is difficult to say what is an attractor or a precursor of this scenario.
Scenario of technological singularity (blue)
: development as it is and the rate of development as a core value. The Olympic call "faster-higher-stronger" applied to all civilization. This is an exponential scenario. The exhibitor cannot fail to cross a linear function. We believe that this intersection point has already occurred. We set it for 2015 based on the publication date of a study by the Stockholm Institute of Resilience that the boundaries of global ecosystem stability were broken in at least two "directions" of the global ecosystem. See Appendix 2
for more details.
Choose a scenario or form your own, meditate and act towards the chosen scenario!